Future Changes in the Major Weather Regimes of Southeast Asia

Conference: 
ICMCS-X
Presentation Type: 
Oral
Author(s): 
Chainarong Raktham (Department of Physics and Materials Science, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand)
James Done (MMM, NCAR)
Jiemjai Kreasuwun (Department of Physics and Materials Science, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand)
Abstract: 

Thailand is located in the Southeast Asian monsoon region and geographically connected to both the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Hence, Thailand is influenced by both monsoonal precipitation and tropical cyclones. This work investigates current tropical cyclone characteristics and statistics, monsoon circulations, and their future changes.. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate these major weather phenomena under current and future climate scenarios. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project (NNRP) data and bias corrected CCSM (Community Climate System Model) data are dynamically downscaled to a resolution of 36km using prescribed sea surface temperature data. The simulated future changes in tropical cyclone characteristics (frequency, intensity, track and genesis regions) and monsoonal precipitation will be discussed.